Coffee Climate

With sustainability being our guiding principle, we are actively learning, innovating, and collaborating to confront the environmental challenges faced by our farming communities during coffee production. This commitment guides our every move, from rethinking processing methods to developing roast profiles, ensuring a harmonious balance between our coffees, and their impact on underlying natural resources.

Climate Change and Coffee Production

Rising temperatures and prolonged droughts are reshaping coffee agriculture, placing both crops and farmers in highly vulnerable positions. As climate change causes weather patterns to become increasingly unpredictable, farmers are facing difficult growing conditions, lower yields, and rising coffee production costs. This is not an isolated issue. It ripples across the entire coffee industry, all the way from production to consumption.

At Ebru Coffee, we’ve taken a scientific and community-driven approach to addressing and studying these challenges. By raising awareness, facilitating education, and promoting sustainable practices, we believe we can not only mitigate these hardships but also help steer the future of coffee production in a positive direction.

We’ve chosen to focus on several key parameters in our research—land surface temperature, rainfall variability, and deforestation—because these directly affect the viability of coffee farming. Through satellite data analysis and on-the-ground observations, we’ve gained deep insights into how these factors influence coffee-growing regions. Below are the results of our findings, which guide our efforts toward sustainability and help inform our decisions as we work alongside farmers to build a more resilient future for coffee.

Land Surface Temperature

The rising temperatures spell a clear warning for the future of coffee production. As the coffee belt warms, coffee plants struggle, and the impact is real: lower yields, vulnerable crops, and the potential for less flavorful coffee. For the farmers in these regions, this could mean economic hardship, as their livelihoods are at risk. This isn’t just a coffee farmer’s issue—it affects everyone who loves and drinks coffee. As temperatures climb, the coffee we depend on for our morning ritual may become less available and more expensive. By choosing coffee from sources that prioritize the environment, every consumer can play a part in supporting a sustainable future for coffee.

To study land surface temperature as part of our research, we’ve applied mathematical models to satellite-derived data, focusing on temperature variations across coffee farms. This approach allows us to observe which regions are most at risk due to rising temperatures and identify where farmers may need to adapt.

world land surface temperature gif
annual coffee belt mean temperature chart

The 2011-2022 data we utilize measures the infrared radiation emitted from the Earth’s surface, which is processed using algorithms that convert this radiation into temperature values. During this process, spatial interpolation methods are employed to fill in gaps and smooth temperature readings, helping us pinpoint regional hotspots where crops are most affected. This deeper understanding of how heat is distributed across coffee-growing regions enables us to work directly with farmers to implement adaptive strategies, such as improving soil moisture retention and diversifying shade tree coverage.

Global Precipitation Measurement

Coffee production requires a precise balance of wet and dry periods to thrive, and any significant deviation from this balance can be detrimental. In recent years, precipitation patterns have become increasingly erratic—some areas experience prolonged droughts while others face excessive rainfall, both of which threaten the crops.

Too little rain leads to drought stress, reducing yields and diminishing the quality of coffee beans. Too much rain, on the other hand, can result in fungal diseases that harm crops. For farmers, these unpredictable conditions introduce uncertainty, not just for their livelihoods but for the entire coffee supply chain. Consumers, too, will feel the effects—from potential changes in coffee availability to fluctuations in taste and price. By paying attention to the origin of our coffee and the farming practices used to grow it, we can help build a more resilient coffee industry.

To better understand these patterns, we utilized satellite-based precipitation data between 2008 - 2022, applying statistical downscaling to create localized maps of rainfall variations. This allows us to track both seasonal rainfall and anomalies across coffee farms, identifying regions where either drought stress or excessive moisture may hinder crop growth.

world precipitation gif
coffee precipitation chart

To detect rainfall variability, we calculated key statistical metrics that reveal how precipitation levels fluctuate over time. With this level of information, we are able to work alongside farmers to promote better water management strategies. These include building a more resilient water storage infrastructure and adapting farming practices to preserve soil moisture during drought periods.

Global Forest Change

Forests provide essential ecosystem services that support coffee production, like shade, soil protection, water regulation, and biodiversity. However, forest loss in key coffee-producing regions is a growing concern, as it compromises the delicate balance needed for sustainable farming. While deforestation in these regions is often driven by a mix of factors—including commercial coffee agriculture, cattle ranching, and land development—it still presents significant risks to coffee crops.

To measure forest loss, we studied satellite-derived NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data, which tracks vegetation health over time. Our analysis spans from 2000 to 2020 and focuses on detecting areas where significant vegetation loss has occurred, using a threshold to highlight regions that have experienced noticeable deforestation.

global forest change data gif
a chart of the yearly forest losses in the coffee belt

The results reveal regions where forest cover has decreased most dramatically, often in areas facing various pressures, including coffee agricultural expansion. This loss not only reduces the natural shade that coffee plants rely on but also weakens the surrounding ecosystems, making coffee farms more vulnerable to rising temperatures, water scarcity, and soil degradation.

This data enables us to collaborate with farmers to implement better agroforestry practices like integrating native shade trees on farms to restore some of the lost vegetation cover. This approach helps protect the environment while improving the long-term sustainability of coffee production farms.

For coffee drinkers, this means being mindful of where their coffee comes from and choosing brands that commit to environmentally friendly practices, including reforestation efforts and shade-grown coffee. The choices we make can help reverse this trend and preserve the delicate ecosystem that our coffee, and our world, depends on.

Future Trends

The future of coffee production is uncertain, as climate models consistently warn of increasing risks posed by rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns. Coffee-growing regions are particularly vulnerable to these shifts, which could result in reduced yields, compromised quality, and more frequent disruptions to the coffee supply chain. These changes could affect not only the livelihoods of many communities but also lead to higher prices and reduced availability for consumers.

To assess future coffee climate risks, we’ve utilized advanced climate models to project temperature and precipitation trends in coffee-producing regions. By analyzing patterns between 2025 and 2030, we identify regions that are most at risk and anticipate where adaptation strategies will be essential.

temperature and precipitation projections for 2025-2030

Our analysis utilizes high-resolution climate projections, using mathematical models to simulate how temperatures and rainfall are expected to change over time. We filter out non-coffee-growing regions, focusing specifically on land areas relevant to coffee production. By dynamically calculating minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation values, we can pinpoint regions likely to experience the most extreme climate events.

The projections reveal rising maximum temperatures in several coffee-growing regions, particularly those near the equator, where frequent heat waves are expected to cause stress on coffee plants. Simultaneously, precipitation patterns are predicted to become increasingly irregular, with some regions likely facing prolonged dry seasons, while others experience excessive rainfall.

This understanding of future trends enables us to collaborate with farmers to prepare for these challenges, promoting sustainable strategies such as improved water management, soil conservation practices, and the use of shade trees to protect crops from extreme heat.

person picking coffee berries off a branch

Altering the Coffee Climate

While there isn’t a quick fix, we do believe coffee brands hold a substantial role in addressing the impact of climate change on coffee agriculture. Committed to sustainability, we fully support producers in adopting sustainable farming practices that not only preserve the high-quality of their crops but help to reduce the impacts of climate change.

Investing in a farm-to-cup approach supports our mission to cultivate a culture of transparency, education, and community around coffee. We work with underrepresented communities, sourcing our coffee directly from the community producing to the community consuming. 

What can consumers do to help? Shopping for sustainable small-batch coffee and engaging in a deeper understanding of the coffee climate are small steps that make a meaningful impact.

close-up of coffee plant with berries

Increasing Awareness About Climate Change & Coffee Production

Invested in sustainability, we’re committed to taking an active role in raising awareness about climate change’s impact on coffee and working towards a more sustainable future by hosting coffee events. Extending beyond the realm of taste of our single-origin coffees, these coffee classes engage in an in-depth exploration of coffee production and agriculture for a richer appreciation of coffee. Join us for a class in our studio, and sign up for our newsletter for the latest updates!